October 2014 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI)

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Freight Index
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

Five Years: Freight Transportation Services Index, October 2009 – October 2014

Table Version | Excel

Five Years: Freight Transportation Services Index, October 2009 - October 2014

Source for Recession Dates: National Bureau of Economic Research, US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, rose 0.3 percent in October from September, rising for the fourth consecutive month, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics’ (BTS). The October 2014 index level (121.8) was 28.8 percent above the April 2009 low during the most recent recession (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

The level of freight shipments in October measured by the Freight TSI (121.8) reached its all-time high (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historicalTSI data.

The September index was revised to 121.4 from 121.5 in last month’s release.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight.

Analysis: The growth in October was led by trucking, rail and waterborne. During the month, several other indicators of related parts of the economy that often impact transportation increased. Employment and retail sales both increased, as did manufacturing output, though total industrial production declined slightly. Inventories increased to reach an historic high.

Trend: The Freight TSI increased for the fourth month in a row in October, reaching an all-time high. The increase was a return to growth after a decline in June.  This October rise was the eighth monthly increase in 2014. However, due to the decline in June and the more substantial decline in January, the total 2014 increase has been only 2.2 percent, less than the 2.8 percent increase during same period in 2013. After dipping to 94.6 in April 2009, the index rose 28.8 percent in the succeeding 66 months. For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: Freight shipments in October 2014 (121.8) were 28.8 percent higher than the recent low in April 2009 during the recession (94.6). The October 2014 level reached its all-time high.

Year to date: Freight shipments measured by the index were up 2.2 percent in October compared to the end of 2013 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: Freight shipments are up 23.9 percent in the five years from the post-recession level of October 2009 and are up 9.2 percent in the 10 years from October 2004 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: October 2014 freight shipments were up 4.6 percent from October 2013 (Tables 4, 5).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measures changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the November 2014 index is scheduled for Jan. 14.

Passenger Index: The TSI for passengers rose 0.4 percent in October from its September level (Table 6).  The Passenger TSI October 2014 level of 120.1 was 1.6 percent above the October 2013 level (Table 7). The index is up 9.1 percent in five years and up 12.9 percent in 10 years (Table 5).  The passenger TSI measures the month-to-month changes in travel that involves the services of the for-hire passenger transportation sector. The seasonally adjusted index consists of data from air, local transit and intercity rail.

Combined Index: The combined freight and passenger TSI rose 0.4 percent in October from its September level (Table 8). The combined TSI October 2014 level of 121.4 was 3.7 percent above the October 2013 level (Table 9). The combined index is up 19.2 percent in five years and up 10.1 percent in 10 years (Table 5). The combined TSI merges the freight and passenger indexes into a single index.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each months data are added.

For a webinar on the TSI, see Past Webinars.  For a video explanation of the TSI, see Overview of the Transportation Services Index.  A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

 

Table 1: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Since April 2014

Percent Change from Previous Month

(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

Freight Passenger Combined
Index Pct. Change Index Pct. Change Index Pct. Change
April 119.4 0.5 119.3 0.1 119.5 0.3
May 120.4 0.9 120.1 0.6 120.4 0.8
June 118.8 -1.4 119.5 -0.5 119.1 -1.1
July 120.3 1.3 120.2 0.6 120.4 1.1
August 121.2 0.7 120.2 -0.1 121.0 0.5
September 121.4 0.1 119.6 -0.4 120.9 0.0
October 121.8 0.3 120.1 0.4 121.4 0.4

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2011-2014

Percent change from previous month

2011 % Change 2012 % Change 2013 % Change 2014 % Change
January 1.1 -3.4 0.7 -2.7
February -1.0 0.2 0.8 0.9
March 1.0 -0.9 0.3 1.6
April -0.1 0.6 -0.8 0.5
May -1.7 0.9 1.1 0.9
June 1.6 0.7 0.4 -1.4
July 0.0 -0.3 0.0 1.3
August 0.6 -0.6 0.4 0.7
September 0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.1
October 0.3 -1.9 -0.3 0.3
November 0.1 1.6 2.6
December 3.6 1.2 -0.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2011-2014

2011 2012 2013 2014
January 110.3 111.7 114.0 115.9
February 109.2 112.0 115.0 117.0
March 110.3 110.9 115.3 118.9
April 110.2 111.6 114.3 119.4
May 108.4 112.6 115.6 120.4
June 110.1 113.4 116.0 118.8
July 110.0 113.1 116.0 120.3
August 110.6 112.3 116.5 121.2
September 111.2 112.2 116.7 121.4
October 111.6 110.1 116.4 121.8
November 111.7 111.9 119.4
December 115.7 113.2 119.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 3: Freight, Passenger and Combined Transportation Services Indexes Year-to-Date Change, 2005-2014

Percent change to October from December of the previous year

Year Freight Passenger Combined
2005 0.0 0.9 0.3
2006 -1.3 2.6 -0.2
2007 0.0 2.5 0.7
2008 -3.3 -3.0 -3.3
2009 -2.0 -0.3 -1.5
2010 6.2 4.1 5.5
2011 2.3 2.0 2.2
2012 -4.8 -1.6 -3.9
2013 2.8 1.7 2.5
2014 2.2 1.7 2.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the October Freight TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

October Freight TSI Percent change from same month previous year
2005 111.2 -0.3
2006 110.8 -0.4
2007 110.6 -0.2
2008 107.1 -3.2
2009 98.3 -8.2
2010 107.9 9.7
2011 111.6 3.4
2012 110.1 -1.3
2013 116.4 5.8
2014 121.8 4.6

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

Table 5: Transportation Services Indexes from Previous Years

Percent Change to 2014 (October to October)

Since October . . . Duration in years Freight TSI Percent change to October 2014 Passenger TSI Percent change to October 2014 Combined TSI Percent change to October 2014
2013 1 4.6 1.6 3.7
2012 2 10.6 5.4 9.0
2011 3 9.2 3.9 7.6
2010 4 12.9 4.4 10.2
2009 5 23.9 9.1 19.2
2008 6 13.7 6.5 11.3
2007 7 10.1 3.1 7.8
2006 8 9.9 7.6 9.1
2005 9 9.5 11.6 9.9
2004 10 9.2 12.9 10.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 6: Passenger Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2011-2014

Percent change from previous month

2011 % Change 2012 % Change 2013 % Change 2014 % Change
January -0.2 -0.8 0.3 -1.0
February -1.2 1.7 0.0 0.0
March 1.6 -0.9 -0.7 2.0
April 0.2 -0.3 1.1 0.1
May 1.0 -0.6 -0.1 0.6
June -0.5 0.3 0.6 -0.5
July 0.9 -0.3 -0.9 0.6
August -2.8 0.8 0.7 -0.1
September 2.9 0.0 0.0 -0.4
October 0.2 -1.6 0.6 0.4
November -0.3 1.4 0.0
December 0.6 0.6 -0.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 7: Passenger Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the October Passenger TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

October Passenger TSI Percent change from same month previous year
2005 107.6 1.2
2006 111.6 3.8
2007 116.5 4.3
2008 112.8 -3.1
2009 110.0 -2.5
2010 115.0 4.5
2011 115.5 0.5
2012 114.0 -1.4
2013 118.2 3.7
2014 120.1 1.6

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

Table 8: Combined Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2011-2014

Percent change from previous month

2011 % Change 2012 % Change 2013 % Change 2014 % Change
January 0.7 -2.7 0.6 -2.2
February -1.1 0.7 0.6 0.7
March 1.2 -0.9 0.0 1.7
April 0.0 0.3 -0.3 0.3
May -0.9 0.5 0.7 0.8
June 0.9 0.6 0.5 -1.1
July 0.2 -0.3 -0.3 1.1
August -0.5 -0.2 0.5 0.5
September 1.2 -0.1 0.1 0.0
October 0.3 -1.8 0.0 0.4
November 0.0 1.6 1.8
December 2.7 1.0 -0.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

 

Table 9: Combined Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year

Percent change in the October Combined TSI

(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

October Combined TSI Percent change from same month previous year
2005 110.4 0.2
2006 111.3 0.8
2007 112.6 1.2
2008 109.0 -3.2
2009 101.8 -6.6
2010 110.1 8.1
2011 112.8 2.5
2012 111.3 -1.3
2013 117.0 5.1
2014 121.4 3.7

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics

NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

 

Brief Explanation of the TSI

The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.  The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel.

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy.   The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

The freight transportation index consists of:
For-hire trucking,
Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
Inland waterways transportation,
Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
Air freight.

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.

The passenger transportation index consists of:
Local transit,
Intercity passenger rail, and
Passenger air transportation.

The index does not include intercity bus, sightseeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation.

Source: DOT Press Release BTS 57-14