Truckload contract rates are likely to keep climbing next year, according to one of the industry’s longtime carrier executives. Covenant Logistics CEO David Parker said he expects double-digit percentage increases in truckload contract rates in 2027, FreightWaves reported Oct. 30.
Asked whether he expected another year of double-digit increases, Parker answered simply: “That’s my expectations.”
Why rates are rising
- Costs. Carriers are paying more for drivers, equipment, insurance and other operating expenses. “We have to because of the cost,” Parker said.
- Tighter driver supply. Parker said the driver market is tightening, and qualified team drivers for specialized freight are getting harder to find.
- Federal enforcement. Parker expects FMCSA’s continued enforcement on driver training schools, CDLs and electronic logging devices (ELDs) to remove capacity, especially in team operations. He estimated that about 30% of ELD-equipped trucks may have manipulated records — “a gigantic number,” in his words.
- Demand. Parker said technology-related freight has “just been exploding.”
Contract rates already moving
The market data backs him up. As of Oct. 29, shippers resetting truckload contracts in recent months were paying about 12.8% more than the rates they replaced, up from 4.1% at the same point in 2025, according to FreightWaves’ SONAR data. Spot rates have climbed too — see our report on September’s record reefer rates and fuel surcharges.
Covenant’s third quarter
- Total revenue rose 19.2% to $353.9 million, and adjusted earnings per share rose to 50 cents from 44 cents.
- Revenue per total mile rose 19.8% to $3.03.
- Truckload revenue excluding fuel surcharges fell 3.4% to $166 million, while the average truckload tractor fleet shrank 8.9% to 2,186 trucks.
- Managed freight (brokerage) revenue jumped 68.4% to $121.6 million.
“We’re going to continue to raise rates,” Parker said.
What it means for owner-operators
Higher contract rates are good news if your costs don’t rise just as fast. With diesel above $6 a gallon and insurance still climbing, make sure any rate increase you get actually covers your cost per mile. If you’re mostly on the spot market, this may be a good time to talk to brokers and shippers about dedicated or contract freight. Track the market in our freight news section, and compare lanes with a good load board.
